Julio Jones Home/Away Fantasy Value

Julio Jones was drafted 6th overall in the 2011 NFL draft.  Through 4 weeks of the 2012 season he has played 16 games, the equivalent of a full NFL season.

In his rookie season, Jones showed that he is a star in the making.  This summer,  fantasy players bought into Jones’ rookie success, making him the number three WR in fantasy drafts (based on ADP at MFL).

In week 1, Jones didn’t disappoint, finishing with 28.8 fantasy points on the strength of 6 catches for 108 yards with 2 TDs against a Chiefs team that after four weeks ranks 11th against the pass.  However, since week 1 Jones’ production took a dip, a big enough dip the past two weeks (failing to score in double digits), to make people wonder what is wrong with Julio Jones.

Taking a look at Jones’ numbers shows that there isn’t anything wrong with him, just that he has far greater production on the road versus at home.

Can it really be that easy?  Does Jones really do that much better on the road than he does at home?  Could it be that he has faced better passing defenses at home and bad ones on the road?

Here are Jones’ career numbers.  Take a look.  What do you see?  What I see follows his stats.

Season Week Opp Def Rank VS Pass Result Fantasy Points Rec Yds Avg TDs
2012 1 @KCC 11 W 40-24 28.8 6 108 18.0 2
2011 1 @CHI 28 L 12-30 12.1 5 71 14.2 0
2011 2 PHI 10 W 35-31 4.9 2 29 14.5 0
2012 2 DEN 13 W 27-21 5.4 4 14 3.5 0
2012 3 @SDC 18 W 27-3 17.7 5 67 13.4 1
2011 3 @TBB 21 L 13-16 17.5 6 115 19.2 0
2011 4 @SEA 11 W 30-28 23.7 11 127 11.5 0
2012 4 CAR 22 W 30-28 4 1 30 30.0 0
2011 5 GBP 32 L 14-25 2.6 1 16 16.0 0
2011 9 @IND 15 W 31-7 28.1 3 131 43.7 2
2011 10 NOS 30 L 23-26 2.9 2 9 4.5 0
2011 13 @HOU 3 L 10-17 10.8 4 68 17.0 0
2011 14 @CAR 24 W 31-23 25.4 3 104 34.7 2
2011 15 JAC 8 W 41-14 19.5 5 85 17.0 1
2011 16 @NOS 30 L 16-45 26.8 8 128 16.0 1
2011 17 TBB 21 W 45-24 23.6 4 76 19.0 2
 *1 point/reception 253.8* 70 1178 16.8 11

What I see when I look at Julio Jones career numbers:

At home in seven games he has caught 19 passes for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns.  In his 9 road games he has 51 passes for 919 yards and 8 touchdowns.

He has scored 253.8 fantasy points in his first 16 games, good for a 15.86 point/game average.
At home he has scored 62.9 points, a 8.99 point/game average, and on the road he has scored 190.9 points, a 21.21 point/game average.

Could it really be that simple?  Jones scoring 21.21 PPG on the road versus 8.99 PPG at home is a compelling stat and home/away split.  Could there be more to it?

What happens if we look at the defensive rank against the pass of his opponents?

Raw number wise Jones has recorded you will see that Jones averages 17.31 PPG against teams ranked in the top 15 against the pass.  Against teams ranked in the bottom 15 against the pass his PPG average is 14.73.   Not much of a difference at all.

Maybe we can find something if we look at his best and worst performances.

Jones has had five games where he has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and six where he has scored more than 20 fantasy points.

In the five games under 10 points, three of those games have been against teams that ranked 22nd, 30th, and 32nd against the pass, the other two games were against the 10th, and 13th ranked pass defenses.

Of Jones’ six 20 point games, three were against teams that ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense (11th, 11th, and 15th), and the other three were against teams in the bottom half of the league (21st, 24th, and 30th).

At best the only trend that I see with regards to how a team ranks defensively against the pass is that Jones has never had a big game against a top-10 ranked pass defense.  Other than that I don’t see a definitive trend.

Looking at wins versus losses the splits are about the same too.  Three of his worst performances have come in wins and two in losses.

So as simple as it may seem, the numbers do support that Julio Jones simply puts up better numbers on the road than he does at home in the Georgia Dome.
Follow me on twitter(@SteveGalloNFL) & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Trying To Figure Out “Who Do I Start”? Take A.I.M.

I’ve been there, and I am pretty sure that you have been there too.  You know, when you are looking at your fantasy football team and trying to figure out who to start, and you are so confused who your flex should be that 20 minutes later you realize you are going to need to make an appointment with Hair Club For Men because of how much hair you have pulled out.

There are many methods that you can utilize to help make your decision, results of course vary.

You can flip a coin, throw a dart, pick a name out of a hat, call a psychic, etc.  Another option would be to ask one of the many fantasy football analysts/”experts” on twitter WDIS (who do I start).

I have to be honest, I answer WDIS questions on twitter, but I don’t like it.  Not because I don’t want to help, but because you just can’t get enough information (scoring system, starting requirements, roster composition etc.) in 140 characters to make well informed recommendations.

It is easy to say just start the players that will score the most points (except in Full Impact IDP, but that’s a beast unto itself), but there are times when that is easier said than done.  Do you play a boom or bust guy over a low upside but steady type player?  If so when do you do that?  Why do you do that?  The one thing you can’t do is affect your opponents players scores, but you know what, while his may seem to be an odd thing to say, I do think that you need to analyze your opponents lineup.

Actually, what you should do is take A.I.M. (Assess,Investigate, Matchup):

Don’t get caught in the same old rut that many do by just analyzing your lineup trying to figure out who to start.  Instead manage the entire process with A.I.M..

Assess:  The first thing you need to do is assess the risk/reward each of your starters presents.  Do you have a couple of top RBs facing top 5 defenses?  Is your top WR facing a shut down corner or an injury replacement nickel back thrust into the starting lineup?

Investigate:  Many fantasy GM’s don’t “investigate” their opponents roster and probable starting lineup.  “if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles;…”, Sun Tzu.  Just like in war, you must know your opponent and just like you assess your team, you should assess your opponent’s team.  Broken down into basic laymen terms, you need to see if you need to “play it safe” or “swing for the fences”.

Matchup:  This is where you are looking at all the variables from both lineups and you play the player that helps you to matchup best with your opponent based on your risk/reward assessment.  Basically if you look like you are going to be a big underdog in your matchup then you swing for the fences with a boom or bust guy.  However, if it looks like you should be able to pull out a win you may want to look at a guy that doesn’t have a huge variance in his weekly scoring.  There is something to be said for a guy that puts up 3-5 fantasy points over a big fat zero.

No matter what you do, do something other than flip a coin, throw a dart, pick a name out of a hat, call a psychic, etc.  After you go through the A.I.M. steps if you still can’t figure things out feel free to tweet me and I will do my best to answer your questions with the little bit of info you can supply in 140 characters.

Oh, and don’t forget to make sure you submit your lineup before you leave for your Hair Club For Men appointment.

 

Follow me on twitter(@IDPSteve) & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

%d bloggers like this: