Alex Smith to the Chiefs…Some stats to chew on.

While it isn’t “official” yet the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will be able to complete the deal once the new NFL season starts on March 12th.

Just because the deal isn’t official yet doesn’t mean that Kansas City fans and fantasy players aren’t wondering exactly what this trade means for Smith and the Chiefs.

In short, what I think is that Smith should put the Chiefs in the race for a wild card this year.  Fantasy wise I think it makes Smith a QB that will outproduce just about everyone’s expectations — in fantasy drafts he will be a great late round quarterback.

I know that JJ Zachariason has to love the last three words of the previous sentence.  After all, he owns a website called “The Late Round Quarterback” as well as an e-book of the same name that is available for purchase on his site.

Now for some stats to chew on.

During Andy Reid’s 14 years as head coach in Philadelphia his quarterbacks averaged 556 passes/season.
Over the last 4 yrs Eagles quarterbacks averaged 571.5 passes/season. That includes 618 passes last year — an outlier. Take those 618 passes away and the average drops back to 556.

Full Impact — Fantasy:  If Reid has Smith put the ball in the air close to 550 times there will be sleeper quarterback value for astute fantasy players.

Full Impact — NFL: Clearly an improved passing attack is coming to Kansas City.  Additionally realize that Chiefs quarterbacks turned the ball over 27 times in 2012.  Alex Smith has 25 turnovers in his last three seasons combined.

Under Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb had a completion percentage of 59.  Don’t forget that McNabb was notorious for throwing at receivers’ feet. Alex Smith’s career completion percentage is 59.3.  The last two years his completion percentage is five points higher at 64.3.

Full Impact — Fantasy:  Smith looks like a great fit for Reid’s offense.  He should be able to keep his completion percentage in the 64 range and that will help him be a more consistent fantasy producer.

Full Impact — NFL: Chiefs quarterbacks combined to have a completion percentage of 57.4 last year.  An increased completion percentage by Smith should extend drives which will not only help the offense be more effective but should also help the defense by decreasing the time that they are on the field.

Over the last four seasons Andy Reid’s quarterbacks have completed 22.8 percent of their passes (78.5/season) to running backs. From 2001-2004 — when the Eagles made it to four consecutive conference championships and one Super Bowl — Reid’s quarterbacks completed 31.6 percent of their passes (97.5/season) to running backs. Smith completed 7.6 percent of his passes to running backs in 2011 (34 total).  In 2012 he completed 15.9 percent to running backs (23 total in his first 8 games started). That extrapolates to 46/season.

Full Impact — Fantasy: This is absolutely great news for Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues. Charles probably tops out carries wise at 250-275 but look for him to be in the neighborhood of 70 receptions.  At this point Charles is in my top 3 at RB and I am giving strong consideration to moving him to number one overall.  Dexter McCluster could also have sneaky value with Reid at the helm.

Full Impact — NFL:  When you can get the ball in the hands of a player like Jamaal Charles — member of the 2012 NFL All-Pro team — 320-340 times good things are going to happen.  The Chiefs offense should improve leaps and bounds from their 24th offensive ranking in 2012.

Donovan McNabb had a career 6.9 YPA (Yards Per Attempt) with the Eagles.
Alex Smith’s career YPA is 6.6, however, over the last two years it’s 7.4.

Full Impact — Fantasy: If Smith can achieve a 7.0 YPA with Reid then your looking at him approaching 4000 yards passing (550 * 6.6=3630, 550 * 7=3850, 550 * 7.4=4070…I think he falls between 7-7.4).

Full Impact — NFL: I think that with Smith under center we see Reid’s offense look much more like it did with McNabb under center than what it did the past three seasons.

Hopefully you enjoyed this little stat snack.

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

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About Steve Gallo
Steve is an NFL Analyst and IDP writer for USA Today Sports Media Group(TheHuddle.com). He is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America & Fantasy Sports Writers Association.

2 Responses to Alex Smith to the Chiefs…Some stats to chew on.

  1. smugff says:

    Reblogged this on Smug Fantasy Football and commented:
    If this trade goes through, Alex Smith will be in a unique position to surprise the fantasy community. The West Coast offense is a great fit for his accurate, mobile game. Receiving talent surrounding him should be an issue if they don’t resign Dwayne Bowe. Jon Baldwin is a sleeper though and could step up. They could also bring in a Free Agent WR. We like Helix High School Alum Alex Smith to step up next year, but obviously we are holding off any serious judgements and projections until trades, free agency, and the draft are finalized. He’s a low end QB2 at best right now, probably a backup with upside in leagues where you start 2 QBs

    • Steve Gallo says:

      Losing Bowe would be a hit, but I don’t think that happens. Another receiver I like is TE Tony Moeaki who is another year removed from his injury. Look at Andy Reid’s past and it is easy to see that he likes to have his TE’s targeted.

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