Week 4 Sleeper-Allen Robinson

Written by, Emmanuel Barrera
9/28/14
@e_barrera74

If you’re like me, you’re in some sort of fantasy football bind right about now either because bye weeks are taking guys out of your lineup or your team has fallen victim to the recent accumulation of injuries to key players. If you’re in a deeper league, chances are players you wanted to snag are gone, or maybe you’re looking for a quality add for various other reasons. Regardless, this week I’m going to go ahead and jump on the Jacksonville Jaguars bandwagon. Blake Bortles has seemingly breathed life into this offense, once again making it fantasy relevant. I was incredibly high on the second round pick out of Penn State when he declared for this years past draft, and my praise of Robinson is seemingly being echoed by the Jacksonville coaching staff as he seems to have surpassed UDFA Allen Hurns as the starter opposite Cecil Shorts, playing 42 out of a possible 60 snaps (according to rotoworld). Not only is Robinson getting on the field, but he’s also being productive with 11 catches on his last 16 targets for 154 yards. While it is extremely likely Robinson may hit the “rookie wall” and suffer a setback in production, he will likely be afforded a lot of opportunities to produce this year, given the lack of production from the Jacksonville backfield. Rookie Blake Bortles will throw early and often, particularly with a defense ranked 31st in the league.

Week 4 Matchup:

As mentioned before, rookies are generally inconsistent, this is especially true for receivers. However, Robinson has a chance to remain productive in a tough matchup versus a stingy San Diego defense. While veteran Brandon Flowers will likely shadow Cecil Shorts, Robinson will probably see his fair share of second year starter Shareece Wright and potentially fellow rookie Jason Verrett. Robinson holds a significant height advantage at 6’3’’ with a 39 inch vertical jump at this years combine, Verrett (5’9’’) is particularly vulnerable. Through 3 weeks, San Diego has shown to be vulnerable against number 2 receivers surrendering 119 yards on 5 catches to Michael Floyd in week 1 and a 15.3 average with 61 yards on 4 receptions to Jermaine Kearse in week 2. Despite a better showing against the Bills in week 3, limiting rookie Sammy Watkins to 19 yards on 2 receptions, the potential for explosive plays is there for Robinson in week 4.

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Pay It Forward Writers Project

If you are looking to get started as a writer & you aren’t affiliated w/a site (if you have contributed to a site but aren’t regularly published you can still take advantage of this opportunity) and have an article(s) you’d like to write/publish I’m opening up my Full Impact Football Blog to give you a place to have them published on the web. I have the blog set up with four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football and IDP) that I plan to group all posts in.

In order to participate as a writer you will have to have a WordPress account (it’s free) and you’ll need to send me an email at Fullimpactblog AT gmail DOT com with a request for me to add you as a contributor. Once I get your request I’ll send you an invitation and then you can get started writing. After your article is finished you will need to send me another email telling me it’s ready to be published — make sure you include the category it should be listed under, and also, at the beginning of the article, include your name, date and twitter handle. I will not be doing any editing and your articles will be posted as you wrote them. With that said, if I find something to be offensive I will not publish it.

I want to give back and I know that having a chance to be read and get exposure is great opportunity. My hope is to have the Full Impact Football Blog be a minor leagues of sorts, where other sites can cultivate new writers that are trying to get started in the industry.

Also, I’m adding mentors that can help those getting started. As a mentor you can be as involved as you’d like…with one or multiple writers. The main requirement for mentors is that they supply their email addresses so that new writers can reach out for guidance is they so desire. A mentor can also feel free to reach out to a new writer to help coach and develop them if they’d like. If you are interested in being a mentor shoot me an email: Gallo AT thehuddle DOT com or a DM on twitter. #PIFWP (Pay It Forward Writer’s Project)

NFL Draft Articles

If you are looking to get started as an NFL Draft writer/analyst & you aren’t affiliated w/a site (if you have contributed to a site but aren’t regularly published you can still take advantage of this opportunity) and have an article(s) you’d like to write/publish I’m opening up this Blog to give you a place to have them published on the web. I have the blog set up with four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football and IDP) that I plan to group all posts in.

In order to participate as a writer you will have to have a WordPress account (it’s free) and you’ll need to send me an email at Fullimpactblog AT gmail DOT com with a request for me to add you as a contributor. Once I get your request I’ll send you an invitation and then you can get started writing. After your article is finished you will need to send me another email telling me it’s ready to be published — make sure you include the category it should be listed under. I will not be doing any editing and your articles will be posted as you wrote them. With that said, if I find something to be offensive I will not publish it.

If you are interested in being a mentor for aspiring NFL Draft analysts/writers send me an email at fullimpactblog@gmail with the following information:

Name:
Twitter:
Email:
Site affiliations:
Categories: ie: NFL Draft (QB, OL & TEs)

There are four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football & IDP) that you can help mentor. If you have a specialty (like I listed in the example) include it/them. Let me know if you have any questions.

Mentors

Below is a list of mentors that contributors can seek out for advice, help or whatever they deem they need. I’ve also listed the categories that each mentor is well versed in.

If you are interested in being a mentor for aspiring writers send me an email at fullimpactblog@gmail with the following information:

Name:
Twitter:
Email:
Site affiliations:
Categories: ie: NFL (BALT & WASH or NFCE or ALL), NFL Draft (QB, OL & TEs etc.), Fantasy Football (Daily & Re-draft)

There are four categories (NFL, NFL Draft, Fantasy Football & IDP) that you can help mentor. If you have a specialty (like I listed in the example) include it/them. Let me know if you have any questions.

 

MENTORS

Name: Steve Gallo
Twitter: @SteveGalloNFL
Email: fullimpactblog@gmail.com
Site affiliations: TheHuddle.com & Full Impact Football
Categories: NFL, Fantasy Football (Re-draft & Dynasty) & IDP

Name: Salvatore Stefanile
Twitter: @2QBFFB
Email: sal@2qbornot2qb.com
Site affiliations: XNSports.com/Sportable.is
Categories: Fantasy Football (Re-draft & 2 QB leagues)

Name: Josh Collacchi
Twitter: @JoshCollacchi
Email: jcollacchi@gmail.com
Site Affiliations:Pro Football Focus Fantasy, XNSports, eDraft.com, Sportable NFL, and ProjectRoto.com
Categories: NFL Draft, Fantasy Football (Daily, Re-draft & Dynasty)

Name: Andy Miley
Twitter: @AndrewMiley
Email: twfs2001@gmail.com
Site affiliations: currently dynastyblitz.com, formerly PFF, formerly fantasyalarm.com, formerly DLF
Speciality: NFL Draft, IDP, Fantasy Football (dynasty)

Name: Leo Howell
Twitter: @LeoHowell8
Email: leohowell8@gmail.com
Site affiliations: numberFire, Bucs Nation
Categories: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, General NFL, Fantasy football re-draft and daily.

Name: Brad Wells
Twitter: @BradWellsNFL
Email: bradleyvwells@yahoo.com
Site affiliations: Formerly of SB Nation, Stampede Blue, and Mocking The Draft
Categories: NFL, NFL Draft, AFC, Indianapolis Colts

Dissecting Quarterback Value In Fantasy Football – The Zero QB Theorem

I think it is safe to say, that at one point or another, we have either heard, or uttered the saying, “I can beat you with one arm tied behind my back.”

That is the essence of the Zero QB Theorem, a theorem that isn’t nearly as complex as Fermet’s Theorem or even the Pythagorean Theorem.

Don’t worry; the Zero QB Theorem doesn’t require the use of geometry, calculus or any advanced mathematics – just simple addition and subtraction. Therefore, it’s safe to say that it won’t make history in mathematical circles, but it’s a game changer for the fantasy football community.

Zero QB Theorem – If you zero out the quarterback’s points on a winning fantasy team, they still win a majority of head-to-head matchups.

Below is an example from the 2012, SOFA Classic league hosted at MyFantasyLeague.com.

ZeroQB_Blog(KFFL) 156.78 – 16.28 = 140.50 > 131.36 (ROTOWIRE)

PERCEPTION ISN’T REALITY

As I was mining the data for this research from three different leagues – SOFA ClassicSOFA IDP (both are expert leagues) and a random non-expert MFL league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) with six point passing TDs – my findings were shocking, even to me. That led me to create some polls at my blog (FullImpactFootball) to see what sort of perceptions people had regarding what a quarterback meant to a fantasy football team.

The questions were simple:
1. How many games do you win with a zero at QB?
2. On average, how many points do you lose by (with a zero at QB)?
3. How many wins/year do the top-3 QBs (ADP) average?

Click to continue reading at thehuddle.com

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Five-year Positional Scoring Averages

The chart below is a compilation utilizing the end of season rankings for the SOFA Classic League. SOFA, or Site Owners Fantasy Association scoring is the same scoring that I am using for the Ultimate Drafter Series, that is with the exception of TE receptions which are 1 point/reception in SOFA and 1.5 in the Ultimate Drafter Series.

This chart will be referred to numerous times in articles that I am writing this summer, so I thought it would be a good idea to post it here for people to reference.

To help clarify exactly what you are looking at I’ll use the 356.84 number for QB1.  What that number represents is the average points the quarterback that finished ranked #1 at the end of the season scored.

The following are the scores by year for the #1 QB over the past five years:
2012: 353.74 (Brees)
2011: 409.42 (Rodgers)
2010: 328.32 (Vick)
2009: 344.16 (Rodgers)
2008: 307.22 (Brees)
Average: 356.84

That’s the method that was used to get the averages for this chart.

Positional Rank  Five Year Averages By Position
QB RB WR TE K D/ST
1 356.84 337.91 309.68 253.12 144.20 190.4
2 342.06 306.28 295.90 219.30 135.40 177
3 332.84 297.10 275.10 202.26 129.40 169
4 324.52 286.98 270.12 187.94 125.60 160.2
5 311.62 262.32 262.50 181.68 124.20 159
6 296.24 253.86 260.58 172.24 122.20 156.4
7 289.29 247.96 255.90 165.72 120.20 151
8 280.11 242.68 251.94 160.12 118.20 146
9 277.74 232.58 246.94 154.46 116.00 142.6
10 272.41 229.22 240.44 150.10 114.40 139.8
11 260.71 221.70 234.86 146.24 112.40 134.6
12 256.04 218.60 230.60 139.48 110.40 131.4
13 253.85 216.02 227.20 135.70 108.50 129.2
14 245.05 208.64 225.24 131.20 107.38 127.4
15 241.09 203.24 223.62 126.42 105.80 126.2
16 235.05 198.67 215.18 121.62 104.00 123.8
17 231.23 192.02 210.36 120.30 101.60 121.4
18 222.72 188.72 208.64 119.00 99.80 120.4
19 212.66 185.38 205.90 113.78 99.20 117.4
20 205.49 183.98 200.06 110.20 98.20 115.4
21 199.49 179.22 195.46 104.88 95.60 113.8
22 189.03 175.90 190.94 100.80 94.40 112.2
23 183.49 172.08 186.57 98.88 93.40 110.2
24 179.72 163.12 184.50 94.70 91.00 105
25 170.95 160.78 182.08 91.80 89.20 102
26 156.22 155.36 179.36 88.10 85.00 100.2
27 143.26 152.30 176.52 85.50 83.00 95
28 134.45 150.40 174.42 82.96 81.29 87.8
29 123.96 146.49 172.68 79.24 76.80 86.6
30 114.68 144.38 170.10 76.98 69.80 78.6
31 105.08 141.74 167.52 73.54 65.28 76.4
32 100.98 138.04 166.32 67.58 54.20 66.6
33 134.64 162.00
34 132.32 157.42
35 138.04 156.78
36 126.38 154.22
37 124.08 153.06
38 118.80 150.52
39 115.84 147.30
40 114.30 146.66
41 112.54 145.00
42 109.52 142.77
43 103.04 140.54
44 98.22 139.82
45 97.06 137.66
46 95.26 136.42
47 93.26 135.58
48 92.14 134.64
49 89.04 132.42
50 86.34 130.20
51 84.76 128.40
52 83.48 125.62
53 81.04 124.38
54 78.58 122.46
55 76.96 121.08
56 76.38 119.36
57 73.74 117.70
58 73.20 115.76
59 69.40 114.84
60 65.78 113.90
61 64.54 112.10
62 63.32 110.08
63 61.92 106.34
64 60.98 105.16
65 59.36 103.90
66 58.27 103.38
67 57.44 101.28
68 56.70 98.18
69 54.98 96.92
70 53.62 95.30
71 51.24 94.14
72 50.28 93.13
73 48.20 90.32
74 46.86 89.80
75 45.72 87.88
76 44.96 85.32
77 42.82 84.16
78 41.64 82.76
79 41.14 81.80
80 38.96 79.88
81 37.80 76.00
82 35.54 74.52
83 34.98 74.16
84 33.64 73.54

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

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