Do Not Draft Odell Beckham Jr

Kade Halvorson 
April 23, 2015
@DailyVineClips

Let’s face it, Odell Beckham Jr’s catch was absolutely insane; however, an excellent rookie season may lead to unachievable expectations for the twenty-two year old wide out. I can assure you that people will be taking Odell Beckham Jr in the first round consistently in the upcoming fantasy drafts. His numbers were excellent averaging approximately fourteen yards per catch, and he caught twelve touchdowns in just twelve games. Although his statistics were off the charts in 2014, 2015 might have a different story. Wide receiver Keenan Allen had a tremendous rookie season with the San Diego Chargers. Unfortunately, his sophomore year did not go as planned. In his first year, he caught eight touchdown passes and had a little over one thousand yards receiving. In his second year, he only caught four touchdown passes, and had roughly eight hundred yards receiving. These numbers are not gigantic drops, but if you think about what Keenan Allen was expected to do, they can be. His production decreased when everyone thought it was going to increase. The same thing might happen with Odell. Just because he caught twelve touchdown passes in twelve games, people think he will catch sixteen touchdowns if he plays the whole year, which rarely happens (especially for a receiver as young as twenty-two years old). But that’s not all, there’s more! Defense coordinators will focus their attention on him more often than not. As of writing this, they certainly are not worried about what the Giants can produce in the running game. Every time Odell Beckham Jr is on the field, he will be looking at double coverage. Lastly, his productivity increased when Victor Cruz was placed on Injured Reserve due to a torn ligament. Victor Cruz will be back this year; therefore, all of the balls will not always be heading towards Odell Beckham Jr’s direction. Overall, just be careful of who you take in the first round of your fantasy draft.

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Dissecting Quarterback Value In Fantasy Football – The Zero QB Theorem

I think it is safe to say, that at one point or another, we have either heard, or uttered the saying, “I can beat you with one arm tied behind my back.”

That is the essence of the Zero QB Theorem, a theorem that isn’t nearly as complex as Fermet’s Theorem or even the Pythagorean Theorem.

Don’t worry; the Zero QB Theorem doesn’t require the use of geometry, calculus or any advanced mathematics – just simple addition and subtraction. Therefore, it’s safe to say that it won’t make history in mathematical circles, but it’s a game changer for the fantasy football community.

Zero QB Theorem – If you zero out the quarterback’s points on a winning fantasy team, they still win a majority of head-to-head matchups.

Below is an example from the 2012, SOFA Classic league hosted at MyFantasyLeague.com.

ZeroQB_Blog(KFFL) 156.78 – 16.28 = 140.50 > 131.36 (ROTOWIRE)

PERCEPTION ISN’T REALITY

As I was mining the data for this research from three different leagues – SOFA ClassicSOFA IDP (both are expert leagues) and a random non-expert MFL league (Best Dam Fantasy League Period!) with six point passing TDs – my findings were shocking, even to me. That led me to create some polls at my blog (FullImpactFootball) to see what sort of perceptions people had regarding what a quarterback meant to a fantasy football team.

The questions were simple:
1. How many games do you win with a zero at QB?
2. On average, how many points do you lose by (with a zero at QB)?
3. How many wins/year do the top-3 QBs (ADP) average?

Click to continue reading at thehuddle.com

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Five-year Positional Scoring Averages

The chart below is a compilation utilizing the end of season rankings for the SOFA Classic League. SOFA, or Site Owners Fantasy Association scoring is the same scoring that I am using for the Ultimate Drafter Series, that is with the exception of TE receptions which are 1 point/reception in SOFA and 1.5 in the Ultimate Drafter Series.

This chart will be referred to numerous times in articles that I am writing this summer, so I thought it would be a good idea to post it here for people to reference.

To help clarify exactly what you are looking at I’ll use the 356.84 number for QB1.  What that number represents is the average points the quarterback that finished ranked #1 at the end of the season scored.

The following are the scores by year for the #1 QB over the past five years:
2012: 353.74 (Brees)
2011: 409.42 (Rodgers)
2010: 328.32 (Vick)
2009: 344.16 (Rodgers)
2008: 307.22 (Brees)
Average: 356.84

That’s the method that was used to get the averages for this chart.

Positional Rank  Five Year Averages By Position
QB RB WR TE K D/ST
1 356.84 337.91 309.68 253.12 144.20 190.4
2 342.06 306.28 295.90 219.30 135.40 177
3 332.84 297.10 275.10 202.26 129.40 169
4 324.52 286.98 270.12 187.94 125.60 160.2
5 311.62 262.32 262.50 181.68 124.20 159
6 296.24 253.86 260.58 172.24 122.20 156.4
7 289.29 247.96 255.90 165.72 120.20 151
8 280.11 242.68 251.94 160.12 118.20 146
9 277.74 232.58 246.94 154.46 116.00 142.6
10 272.41 229.22 240.44 150.10 114.40 139.8
11 260.71 221.70 234.86 146.24 112.40 134.6
12 256.04 218.60 230.60 139.48 110.40 131.4
13 253.85 216.02 227.20 135.70 108.50 129.2
14 245.05 208.64 225.24 131.20 107.38 127.4
15 241.09 203.24 223.62 126.42 105.80 126.2
16 235.05 198.67 215.18 121.62 104.00 123.8
17 231.23 192.02 210.36 120.30 101.60 121.4
18 222.72 188.72 208.64 119.00 99.80 120.4
19 212.66 185.38 205.90 113.78 99.20 117.4
20 205.49 183.98 200.06 110.20 98.20 115.4
21 199.49 179.22 195.46 104.88 95.60 113.8
22 189.03 175.90 190.94 100.80 94.40 112.2
23 183.49 172.08 186.57 98.88 93.40 110.2
24 179.72 163.12 184.50 94.70 91.00 105
25 170.95 160.78 182.08 91.80 89.20 102
26 156.22 155.36 179.36 88.10 85.00 100.2
27 143.26 152.30 176.52 85.50 83.00 95
28 134.45 150.40 174.42 82.96 81.29 87.8
29 123.96 146.49 172.68 79.24 76.80 86.6
30 114.68 144.38 170.10 76.98 69.80 78.6
31 105.08 141.74 167.52 73.54 65.28 76.4
32 100.98 138.04 166.32 67.58 54.20 66.6
33 134.64 162.00
34 132.32 157.42
35 138.04 156.78
36 126.38 154.22
37 124.08 153.06
38 118.80 150.52
39 115.84 147.30
40 114.30 146.66
41 112.54 145.00
42 109.52 142.77
43 103.04 140.54
44 98.22 139.82
45 97.06 137.66
46 95.26 136.42
47 93.26 135.58
48 92.14 134.64
49 89.04 132.42
50 86.34 130.20
51 84.76 128.40
52 83.48 125.62
53 81.04 124.38
54 78.58 122.46
55 76.96 121.08
56 76.38 119.36
57 73.74 117.70
58 73.20 115.76
59 69.40 114.84
60 65.78 113.90
61 64.54 112.10
62 63.32 110.08
63 61.92 106.34
64 60.98 105.16
65 59.36 103.90
66 58.27 103.38
67 57.44 101.28
68 56.70 98.18
69 54.98 96.92
70 53.62 95.30
71 51.24 94.14
72 50.28 93.13
73 48.20 90.32
74 46.86 89.80
75 45.72 87.88
76 44.96 85.32
77 42.82 84.16
78 41.64 82.76
79 41.14 81.80
80 38.96 79.88
81 37.80 76.00
82 35.54 74.52
83 34.98 74.16
84 33.64 73.54

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

Ultimate Drafter Series #1

Officially I am kicking off the Ultimate Drafter Series today.  Unlike the two pre-draft Beta Ultimate Drafter Series’ all 12 drafts are starting at the same time instead at the rate of two per day.

If you aren’t sure what The Ultimate Drafter Series is you can read about it here.

The following are links to each individual draft being held at MyFantasyLeague.com.  Feel free to follow along.

Draft Links Start Date Start Time
Draft 1 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 2 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 3 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 4 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 5 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 6 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 7 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 8 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 9 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 10 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 11 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern
Draft 12 June 17th 8 p.m. Eastern

The following chart will be updated post-draft with the participants names and their draft slot for each draft.

UDS #1 (Non-Expert/Non-IDP) Draft 1 Draft 2 Draft 3 Draft 4 Draft 5 Draft 6
John “333” 1 12 2 11 3 10
Dan Overton 2 8 6 4 1 5
Marcus Brown 3 6 4 1 7 11
Kevin Walsh 4 2 3 5 12 9
John Klindworth 5 9 1 8 4 6
Daniel Williams 6 1 7 2 8 3
Paul 7 11 12 10 5 4
Josh Geschke 8 3 9 6 10 7
Brian Hucks 9 10 5 7 6 12
Carl Shute 10 4 11 3 9 2
“D C” 11 7 8 12 2 1
Edward Hitman 12 5 10 9 11 8
UDS #1(Non-Expert/Non-IDP) Draft 7 Draft 8 Draft 9 Draft 10 Draft 11 Draft 12
John “333” 4 8 5 6 9 7
Dan Overton 3 11 12 9 7 10
Marcus Brown 10 5 2 8 12 9
Kevin Walsh 11 10 8 7 6 1
John Klindworth 12 2 7 3 10 11
Daniel Williams 9 4 10 5 11 12
Paul 8 6 9 1 2 3
Josh Geschke 2 12 4 11 1 5
Brian Hucks 1 3 11 4 8 2
Carl Shute 6 7 1 12 5 8
“D C” 5 9 6 10 3 4
Edward Hitman 7 1 3 2 4 6

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

Alex Smith to the Chiefs…Some stats to chew on.

While it isn’t “official” yet the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will be able to complete the deal once the new NFL season starts on March 12th.

Just because the deal isn’t official yet doesn’t mean that Kansas City fans and fantasy players aren’t wondering exactly what this trade means for Smith and the Chiefs.

In short, what I think is that Smith should put the Chiefs in the race for a wild card this year.  Fantasy wise I think it makes Smith a QB that will outproduce just about everyone’s expectations — in fantasy drafts he will be a great late round quarterback.

I know that JJ Zachariason has to love the last three words of the previous sentence.  After all, he owns a website called “The Late Round Quarterback” as well as an e-book of the same name that is available for purchase on his site.

Now for some stats to chew on.

During Andy Reid’s 14 years as head coach in Philadelphia his quarterbacks averaged 556 passes/season.
Over the last 4 yrs Eagles quarterbacks averaged 571.5 passes/season. That includes 618 passes last year — an outlier. Take those 618 passes away and the average drops back to 556.

Full Impact — Fantasy:  If Reid has Smith put the ball in the air close to 550 times there will be sleeper quarterback value for astute fantasy players.

Full Impact — NFL: Clearly an improved passing attack is coming to Kansas City.  Additionally realize that Chiefs quarterbacks turned the ball over 27 times in 2012.  Alex Smith has 25 turnovers in his last three seasons combined.

Under Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb had a completion percentage of 59.  Don’t forget that McNabb was notorious for throwing at receivers’ feet. Alex Smith’s career completion percentage is 59.3.  The last two years his completion percentage is five points higher at 64.3.

Full Impact — Fantasy:  Smith looks like a great fit for Reid’s offense.  He should be able to keep his completion percentage in the 64 range and that will help him be a more consistent fantasy producer.

Full Impact — NFL: Chiefs quarterbacks combined to have a completion percentage of 57.4 last year.  An increased completion percentage by Smith should extend drives which will not only help the offense be more effective but should also help the defense by decreasing the time that they are on the field.

Over the last four seasons Andy Reid’s quarterbacks have completed 22.8 percent of their passes (78.5/season) to running backs. From 2001-2004 — when the Eagles made it to four consecutive conference championships and one Super Bowl — Reid’s quarterbacks completed 31.6 percent of their passes (97.5/season) to running backs. Smith completed 7.6 percent of his passes to running backs in 2011 (34 total).  In 2012 he completed 15.9 percent to running backs (23 total in his first 8 games started). That extrapolates to 46/season.

Full Impact — Fantasy: This is absolutely great news for Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues. Charles probably tops out carries wise at 250-275 but look for him to be in the neighborhood of 70 receptions.  At this point Charles is in my top 3 at RB and I am giving strong consideration to moving him to number one overall.  Dexter McCluster could also have sneaky value with Reid at the helm.

Full Impact — NFL:  When you can get the ball in the hands of a player like Jamaal Charles — member of the 2012 NFL All-Pro team — 320-340 times good things are going to happen.  The Chiefs offense should improve leaps and bounds from their 24th offensive ranking in 2012.

Donovan McNabb had a career 6.9 YPA (Yards Per Attempt) with the Eagles.
Alex Smith’s career YPA is 6.6, however, over the last two years it’s 7.4.

Full Impact — Fantasy: If Smith can achieve a 7.0 YPA with Reid then your looking at him approaching 4000 yards passing (550 * 6.6=3630, 550 * 7=3850, 550 * 7.4=4070…I think he falls between 7-7.4).

Full Impact — NFL: I think that with Smith under center we see Reid’s offense look much more like it did with McNabb under center than what it did the past three seasons.

Hopefully you enjoyed this little stat snack.

Follow me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

The Ultimate Drafter Series

UPDATE (6/15/13):  Be advised that the starting requirements have been changed, and all 12 drafts will now start on the same day.

One thing that I have always tried  to do is push the envelope — from testing a business model for video delivery (sort of like Netflix) back in 1990 to finding new and innovative ways to help fantasy football evolve.

Back in 2002 I wanted to create a contest — something new and different — that  I could run in the forums at TheHuddle.com.  What I came up with was “The Huddle Challenge”(linked to HC3 in 2004).  A concept where you could start any player you wanted, but the catch was that once you started that player you couldn’t start them again(I called it suicide style). In order to make the process easy to manage each team had to select just one QB, RB and WR. Today that concept is known as tournament style.  A style that the FFTOC brought to the masses in 2004.

Last year, in an effort to help IDP evolve I created a league called Full Impact IDP.  What makes that league and concept so different is that the defensive scheme a team starts impacts their opponents offensive points scored.  It is similar to a scoring system that Sandbox used to use, but it is much more detailed, and that adds  to the strategy the concept presents.

That leads me to “The Ultimate Drafter” Series…

What is it?
What is the Ultimate Drafter Series?  It is a series that puts all participants on an equal footing by allowing everyone to draft from each draft slot.  It will be a “draft and forget it” league that utilizes best-ball scoring.  After all the points are tallied (total points league, no head-to-head) at the end of the season there will be one lone drafter that stands as “The Ultimate Drafter” — talk about bragging rights.

Why?
Why? Because fantasy football players are a competitive bunch.  It doesn’t matter if it is a league we are drafting for or just a mock draft in February, we always want to come out on top.

Drafting
Drafting, at least for me, is one of the best parts of fantasy football.  But make no mistake about it, while you can win a league from any draft position, there are positions that make it either much easier or much more difficult to do.  The Ultimate Drafter series takes that element away and gives every participant the opportunity to draft from each draft position.  Of course that means that in a 12 team league there will be 12 different drafts, but hey, who doesn’t love to draft?  Also, with everyone on an equal footing a true champion — The Ultimate Drafter — can be crowned.

12 Drafts
Non-IDP leagues will have a 22 round draft, and IDP leagues will have a 44 round draft — 12 of them.  All 12 drafts will start at the same time.  That might seem like a bit much but think about how often you check to see if you are up and you aren’t and have to wait.  Now you’ll have 12 chances to be on the clock.

Rosters
Non-IDP rosters will have 10 starting positions: QB (1), RB (2-3), WR (3-4), TE (1-2), Team K (1) and Def (1). IDP will have 20 starting positions: QB (1), RB (2-3), WR (3-4), TE (1-2), Team K (1), DT (1-2), DE (2), LB (3-4), S (2) and CB (2). The reason for the team kicker is because once the draft is completed there will be no waiver moves at all.

Scoring
SOFA (Site Owner Fantasy Association) scoring (IDP scoring)with a couple of tweaks will be used.  The tweaks are that interceptions thrown will be worth -1 and PPR will be graduated — RB (.75), WR (1.0) and TE* (1.5).

*QB, K, DT, DE, LB, S and CB will also receive 1.5 PPR.

One more twist
All team names will be Franchise 1, Franchise 2, Franchise 3, etc. That is unlike most drafts where you can enter your name or an ingenious fantasy football team name.  The reason is so that your fellow drafters won’t be able to — or at least not as easily — figure out who your target is based off what you have done in the other drafts.  After all, knowing and understanding the tendencies of those you draft with can be a huge advantage.  This is just another way to level the playing field a bit more, but after all the drafts are completed I will enter everyone’s actual name in place of their franchise number.

Our host
Myfantasyleague.com (MFL) — the best league management software out there — will be the home to The Ultimate Drafter Series. MFL also has an option where you can set-up your own Draft Only League for free.  They also offer multi-league discounts, referral discounts, as well as a discount if you move to them from another league management site. Yep, MFL rocks!

Want to participate?
To start I am looking for experts to fill a 12 team non-IDP league and 12 team IDP league.  Then based on interest I will create additional Ultimate Drafter Series’.  If you aren’t an expert don’t fret, I’ll be creating first-come first-serve Ultimate Drafter Series’ too. If you are an expert and interested in taking part in The Ultimate Drafter Series please email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com.  Please include the site that you write for and your twitter handle if you have one.  If you aren’t an expert you can also email me at the above address, just realize that there might be a wait until I get the non-expert drafts going.

The catch
The only thing that I ask is that you do your part to bring added exposure to the concept.  Spreading the word via twitter (I’ll come up with a hashtag later), articles, blogs, forums, etc. would be much appreciated.

Follow me on twitter,@SteveGalloNFL & if you have any questions about The Ultimate Drafter Series please feel free to email me at ultimatedrafterseries@gmail.com

Julio Jones Home/Away Fantasy Value

Julio Jones was drafted 6th overall in the 2011 NFL draft.  Through 4 weeks of the 2012 season he has played 16 games, the equivalent of a full NFL season.

In his rookie season, Jones showed that he is a star in the making.  This summer,  fantasy players bought into Jones’ rookie success, making him the number three WR in fantasy drafts (based on ADP at MFL).

In week 1, Jones didn’t disappoint, finishing with 28.8 fantasy points on the strength of 6 catches for 108 yards with 2 TDs against a Chiefs team that after four weeks ranks 11th against the pass.  However, since week 1 Jones’ production took a dip, a big enough dip the past two weeks (failing to score in double digits), to make people wonder what is wrong with Julio Jones.

Taking a look at Jones’ numbers shows that there isn’t anything wrong with him, just that he has far greater production on the road versus at home.

Can it really be that easy?  Does Jones really do that much better on the road than he does at home?  Could it be that he has faced better passing defenses at home and bad ones on the road?

Here are Jones’ career numbers.  Take a look.  What do you see?  What I see follows his stats.

Season Week Opp Def Rank VS Pass Result Fantasy Points Rec Yds Avg TDs
2012 1 @KCC 11 W 40-24 28.8 6 108 18.0 2
2011 1 @CHI 28 L 12-30 12.1 5 71 14.2 0
2011 2 PHI 10 W 35-31 4.9 2 29 14.5 0
2012 2 DEN 13 W 27-21 5.4 4 14 3.5 0
2012 3 @SDC 18 W 27-3 17.7 5 67 13.4 1
2011 3 @TBB 21 L 13-16 17.5 6 115 19.2 0
2011 4 @SEA 11 W 30-28 23.7 11 127 11.5 0
2012 4 CAR 22 W 30-28 4 1 30 30.0 0
2011 5 GBP 32 L 14-25 2.6 1 16 16.0 0
2011 9 @IND 15 W 31-7 28.1 3 131 43.7 2
2011 10 NOS 30 L 23-26 2.9 2 9 4.5 0
2011 13 @HOU 3 L 10-17 10.8 4 68 17.0 0
2011 14 @CAR 24 W 31-23 25.4 3 104 34.7 2
2011 15 JAC 8 W 41-14 19.5 5 85 17.0 1
2011 16 @NOS 30 L 16-45 26.8 8 128 16.0 1
2011 17 TBB 21 W 45-24 23.6 4 76 19.0 2
 *1 point/reception 253.8* 70 1178 16.8 11

What I see when I look at Julio Jones career numbers:

At home in seven games he has caught 19 passes for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns.  In his 9 road games he has 51 passes for 919 yards and 8 touchdowns.

He has scored 253.8 fantasy points in his first 16 games, good for a 15.86 point/game average.
At home he has scored 62.9 points, a 8.99 point/game average, and on the road he has scored 190.9 points, a 21.21 point/game average.

Could it really be that simple?  Jones scoring 21.21 PPG on the road versus 8.99 PPG at home is a compelling stat and home/away split.  Could there be more to it?

What happens if we look at the defensive rank against the pass of his opponents?

Raw number wise Jones has recorded you will see that Jones averages 17.31 PPG against teams ranked in the top 15 against the pass.  Against teams ranked in the bottom 15 against the pass his PPG average is 14.73.   Not much of a difference at all.

Maybe we can find something if we look at his best and worst performances.

Jones has had five games where he has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and six where he has scored more than 20 fantasy points.

In the five games under 10 points, three of those games have been against teams that ranked 22nd, 30th, and 32nd against the pass, the other two games were against the 10th, and 13th ranked pass defenses.

Of Jones’ six 20 point games, three were against teams that ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense (11th, 11th, and 15th), and the other three were against teams in the bottom half of the league (21st, 24th, and 30th).

At best the only trend that I see with regards to how a team ranks defensively against the pass is that Jones has never had a big game against a top-10 ranked pass defense.  Other than that I don’t see a definitive trend.

Looking at wins versus losses the splits are about the same too.  Three of his worst performances have come in wins and two in losses.

So as simple as it may seem, the numbers do support that Julio Jones simply puts up better numbers on the road than he does at home in the Georgia Dome.
Follow me on twitter(@SteveGalloNFL) & if you have any questions please feel free to email me at gallo@thehuddle.com

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